NFL Playoffs 2012 - Divisional Weekend

This is the last weekend of the season with more than two games. I’m very excited about these games, the Saturday ones in particular. I want to take this time to note that I tried to use the Saturday games as an excuse to not paint my daughter’s (soon to be daughters’) room a delicious shade of yellow this weekend. It sounded so bad coming out of my mouth that I briefly considered not watching football as a penalty to myself. I mean, let’s be honest, all I do is move some furniture about two feet and then roll when my wife says, “ROLL!” I’m pretty sure that can be accomplished before the games start and I can start eating wings.

In case you hadn’t heard, I went 4-0 against the spread last week. Keep that in mind, and I recommend you at least consider doing the opposite of these picks.

Saints at 49ers - line is Saints -4
Much is being made of the Saints record indoors vs. outdoors this year (they’re good at home, not so good on the road, and played 11 games in domes this year). Since good weather is expected in SF this weekend, a bigger factor here will be the fact the Saints played a crappy schedule, and the 49ers defense is excellent. Remember that the Saints were down 14-10 at halftime last week and the Lions dropped two easy interceptions that could have easily turned the game around. The 49ers won’t make the same mistakes. Don’t take the points unless you think your team can win, and I always like the home underdog in the playoffs.

My pick: 49ers 27, Saints 20

Broncos at Patriots - line is Patriots -13.5
A few years ago I never would have believed that I would be cheering for Tebow. But when he threw the pass that beat the Steelers on the first play of overtime last weekend, I jumped out of my chair. Whatever you think about his faith, I don’t think anyone can deny that FAITH BEGETS CONFIDENCE. Tebow is supremely confident, and that can take you a long way. But it can’t take you all the way. The Patriots are too good, and they’ve had plenty of time to prepare for this one. That’s a lot of points to give, but they beat the Broncos in Denver 41-23 on December 18th. This one will be over early.

My pick: Patriots 41, Broncos 11

Texans at Ravens - line is Ravens -7.5
Joe Flacco’s career playoff record is 3-4. He’s thrown 4 playoff TDs and 7 playoff INTs. I’m no TJ Yates lover, but if you had the choice between betting on an unproven player, and a player who had proven to be not very good, what choice would you make? The Texans defense is too good for this to be a blowout. The Ravens will win a close one, but take the Texans and the points.

My pick: Ravens 16, Texans 14

Giants at Packers - line is Packers -7.5
Wow, I can’t believe how awesome these games are. This is the last game of the weekend, and it might be the best. But then I remembered that the Packers were 15-1 this year, and the Giants were 8-8. And now if you are a Packer fan you come face to face with the problem you have had all season: once the Packers seemed like they were really REALLY good, the only thing that would satisfy would be a Super Bowl victory. So unless they win the next three games, I daresay that you haven’t even really enjoyed the season all that much, especially after that painful loss in Kansas City. But at least for one more week, the dream lives on...

My pick: Packers 37, Giants 13

Here's some acoustic Bad Religion for you. Skyscraper is one of my top 10 favorite songs of all-time.

Twins Fever

I am no Twins apologist. In fact, you could call me Mr. Negative at times when it comes to the hometown 9. There's been plenty not to like about recent Twins teams, although hardcore fans who never went away during the mid- and late-nineties will disagree with me I am sure. Yes, the Twins have not been awful. Yes, they have done it mostly with homegrown talent. But have they really contended for a title in any meaningful way? Ron Gardenhire is a great manager, but his lifetime playoff record is 6-18. They have been close a couple of times against the Yankees, but I think we would all agree that winning any of those series would have been shocking. Since they lost in the ALCS to the Angels in 2002, I don't think that any of us could be honest with ourselves and say that we really thought the Twins could win it all.

But this year is different. On April 5th, 2010, I really think that the Twins have an honest chance to win the World Series this season.

Is it some kind of new stadium euphoria that has gone to my head? Is it a man crush on Joe Mauer (unlike Joe Smith, Mauer really is no ordinary Joe)? Is it the face that our off season acquisitions were more than just other teams retreads who we knew would be cut by the end of May? (I wouldn't recognize JJ Hardy or Orlando Hudson if they walked up to me in uniform, but I love them already.) It's some of all of that. I am more excited for this baseball season than I have been in a very long time.

Maybe it's the thought that I am going to get to take my daughter to her first baseball game this summer, and we won't have to sit inside and talk about what a beautiful night for baseball it is outside the Dome. She has not one but TWO Twins shirts now (Morneau and Liriano), and I almost cried when Nadia got her Joe Mauer #7 for Easter. First pitch tonight is at 9:05 local time, and I will probably turn off the NCAA title game to watch baseball, even though it's just 1 out of 162.

For once, I am not going to be negative the first time Baker the Bomb-maker gets shelled, or the first time I have to watch little Nicky Punto come to the plate when need a hit late in a game, or when Jon Rausch blows his first save, or when Denard Span hits his own mother with a foul ball. This year is going to be filled with POSITIVITY, excitement, and hopefully October baseball under the stars. The biggest question mark facing the Twins this year is going to be whether or not we still wave Homer Hankies during the playoffs.

Twins fever? I've been infected, and I don't think there is a cure.

Divisional Playoff Picks

Last week my picks were 2-2. I was right on the Cowboys and Ravens, wrong on the Bengals and Packers. All I can say is that the Bengals played like they were the crappy team, although I had to turn the game off because the annoucing crew was so awful. And the Packers game, well, I did say if 1999 Kurt Warner came to play, the Packers would be in trouble. Whichever team lost that game was going to be pissed because they both knew they had a chance to win. On to the games for this week - which is, as others have said, the best week of football all year.

Game #1 - Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints



The Saints didn't look very good down the stretch, but they had very little to play for, and remember, 2 months ago, after they destroyed the Patriots on Monday Night, they looked like one of the great teams of all-time. They are home, in front of what will be a very loud crowd. Drew Brees could have been league MVP this year. The defense creates a lot of turnovers. And the Cardinals gave up 45 points last week, and it looks like the Saints have an even more explosive offense than the Packers did.

Of course, I am picking the Cardinals. If the past two years have taught us anything, it's that Kurt Warner needs to be in discussion as one of the great Quaterbacks of the past 25 years. If he were to somehow get the Cardinals all the way to the Super Bowl this year, and even WIN it all, I think you would have to put him on a list of the greatest of all-time. Against the Packers he threw 5 passes that resulted in TDs. He threw FOUR passes that landed incomplete. That's just shocking. If you are gambling on this game, I just don't think you can put yourself in a position where you lose money because Warner had a huge day. You would feel stupid.


I am picking Cardinals +7, and I think they will win it outright: Cardinals 38, Saints 30

Game #2 - Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts


The Colts have lost in the playoffs at home after a bye 3 times in the past 10 years. They quit playing for keeps during the regular season, and that was about a month ago. Honestly, had they NOT won the Super Bowl a few years ago (which they DID win, I understand, but remember that Rex Grossman was prominently involved), they would be on a short list of biggest chokers in history.

The Ravens made it all the way to the AFC title game last year, and look even meaner than usual, especially last week against a crappy Patriots team. No, I don't like QB Flacco - he looked old last week and he's not old, so that's a bad sign. I think the Ravens will play with more emotion. Look out if the Colts D gets after Flacco too much, but I think the Ravens running game will keep that from happening. And let's face it, I don't think the Colts are too happy about playing the Ravens this week. The Colts won a lot of close games this year, and I think they will lose this one.

I am taking Ravens +6.5, and to win outright, 24-17

Game #3 - Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings

I haven't had this amount of anticipation about a game in a long time. It's almost more than I can handle. This game will come down to how well the Vikins offensive line plays against the Cowboys defensive line. If the Vikings can control that line of scrimmage, they'll be fine. If you see Favre running for his life and getting a lot of pressure, it will get real quiet in the Metrodome real fast. I think that having the extra week to prepare will be a big advantage for the Vikings in that regard.

On the other side of the ball, I am not scared of Romo. He's been ok recently, but he has been a choker in the past. If our defensive secondary can tackle, the Vikings will be fine. Fat Pat Williams and Kevin Williams will be important, too. As always, if Jared Allen has a big game, the Cowboys have no chance.

Vegas seems to like the Cowboys, only giving a customer 3 points to the road team. I don't htink it will be that close.

I am taking Vikings -3. Minnesota 35, Dallas 20

(There's nothing better than beating overconfident Cowboys. It's very satisfying to watch them cry as they leave the field).

Game #4 - NY Jets @ San Diego Chargers

Look, this is a VERY good Chargers team. This is the week that we see the Jets exposed as a very borderline playoff team. I don't see any way that the Chargers can be stopped - they are my pick to get to the Superbowl in the AFC right now. The Jets had a nice run, but their rookie QB isn't taking them any further, and the Chargers have too many passing weapons for the Jets to stop. This looks like a blowout.

I've got Chargers -7. San Diego 38, Jets 13

All you know now is that at least one of these predictions will be wrong. Proceed at your own risk!

First Round NFL Playoff Picks

Since I know you all care so much, it's time to release my picks for the first round of the NFL playoffs. We all know that the NFL playoffs are the best playoffs of any sport. I encourage all of you to devote yourselves fully and completely to the NFL playoffs - you will NOT be disappointed.

For the purposes of these picks, I am using the Las Vegas Hilton lines as of Friday morning. I am doing this because I actually won money once on the only game I have ever put down a real bet on, and it was at the Hilton.

Game #1 - NY Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals

These teams played last week, but only one of them was playing for something, so the domination by the Jets should be completely disregardd. The Bengals have all the emotion on their side in this one, having dealt with two deaths close to the team this year (the Defensive Coordinator's wife early in season and WR Chris Henry just a few weeks ago). Professional football is an emotional game, and playoff football only intensifies that. Add to that the fact that the Bengals are at home, which will mean something in this game because...

The Jets start rookie QB Mark Sanchez, who was ok this year, but is clearly the worst QB in the playoffs this year. The Jets only hope is to run the ball a lot and shorten the game, because if they ask Sanchez to win it for them, they are cooked. The Bengals know this and will make it impossible for the Jets to run. Once the Jets get behind and are forced to start throwing the ball, look for this game to get out of hand.

I am taking the Bengals -2.5, all the way to the bank. Bengals 28, Jets 10

Game #2 - Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys

Eagles coach Andy Reid is 7-0 all time in the first game they play in the playoffs. Wad Phillips and Tony Romo have never won a playoff game for any team. Everyone hates the Cowboys all the time, because they have one of the richest owners, and most of their fans are really annoying. Any team that calls itself "America's Team" should be disbanded on general principle alone. Plus, these Cowboys are classic underachievers.

So of course, I am taking the Cowboys. There's no way that Reid can continue his playoff coaching streak. And these teams played just last week, with the Cowboys winning 24-0. And don't let anyone tell you otherwise, the Eagles DID want to win that game. Had they won, they would have been the #2 seed in the NFC, gotten a bye and a home game in the playoffs. Instead they fall to #6 and find themselves in the first ever playoff game in the new Cowboys stadium. The Eagles have more injuries than can even be listed in this space, including key injuries on the offensive line (playoff football often comes down to who can protect their QB better). In spite of all the factors listed above, the Cowboys are just the better team, and the better team usually wins these games.

I am taking the Cowboys -3.5; Dallas 31, Philadelphia 17

Game #3 - Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots

Like everyone else in America (even some people from Boston), I am sick of Boston teams. I am sick of Tom Brady (hot wife, illegitimate child, lame haircut). I am sick of Bill Belichek. I am sick of Boston getting all of Minnesota's good players (David Ortiz, Randy Moss, Kevin Garnett). They are just thoroughly unlikeable in so many ways. But beyond that, they just aren't that great this year. With the loss of Wes Welker last week, the Baltimore Defense will be able to focus on containing Moss, leaving it up to Fred Taylor to carry the load for the offense, and this isn't 2001 anymore, so I'm not buying it.

The Ravens were much better than their record would indicate. They lost at least 4 should have won games (including the game against the Vikings). They have a young QB in Joe Flacco, but they made it to the AFC title game last year, and this team is better. Ray Rice is as good a young, all-purpose RB as you will find. And Willis "The Father of America" McGahee is just a stud. This is not the same Baltimore Defense of years past, but they are still getting it done, and I don't think the Patriots can protect Brady long enough for him to do anything. Patriots fans know that this isn't their year.

I'm taking the Ravens +3.5. Ravens 24, Patriots 17

Game #4 - Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals

We all know the league is going to do anything it can to get one more Packers/Vikings game this year (and you KNOW the Packer fans would love to have one more crack at Favre, especially in the playoffs). The Cardinals surprised everyone last year with their Super Bowl run, and I don't think I can live in a world where the Arizona Cardinals go to the Super Bowl two years in a row. The Packers are a much better team than they were earlier in the year, and are healthy on the offensive line, which the Cardinals are not. The only word of warning here relates to Kurt Warner. If he starts to party like it's 1999, all bets are off. Also, if man-child Superhero Larry Fitzgerald has a game like he had in any of last year's playoff games, the Packers could be in trouble.

I'm taking the Packers +1. Green Bay 38, Arizona 34

So there you have it. With this information there are two things that are certain:

1. At least one of these picks will be wrong. Probably more than one. So tread carefully.
2. Years from now someone will stumble on this blog and wonder why someone would have a blog with only 2 posts in the past 4 months.